In his influential book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel makes his case for efficient market theory and passive investing all while excoriating technical analysis through straw man argument. About Beta he writes, “Beta really looks suspiciously like a tool of technical analysis in academic drag – a bastard cousin of the technician’s charts”. We believe beta looks like technical analysis because it is technical analysis as is, by extension, alpha. To whit, alpha and beta estimates can be derived solely from historical price action of securities and indices. Moreover, alpha and beta are indicators that can be effectively analyzed by charts. Most important, it is apparent to us that alpha in particular has useful predictive properties for securities selection and portfolio construction.

Academic finance is replete with studies supporting or denying the existence of serial correlation in securities prices1. In effect, such studies test the weak form efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Simply put, can investors use technical analysis to beat the market?

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In August 1999 near the peak of the stock market tech bubble, a long-time, normally conservative client asked me for a “low priced” stock pick in the then red-hot technology sector. I told him about several stocks that fit the bill. He settled on Corel Corporation, a Canadian based Software Company that was working on porting their Perfect Office Suite to the Linux operating system. Almost immediately upon his buying 1,000 shares at $4.75, Corel began climbing nearly doubling within a few weeks before pulling back. In November 1999, Corel stock soared higher. I called my client and recommended he sell his shares at $28. He sold, booking a 560% profit in just 3 months. The day after he sold, he called me back and asked excitedly “Where is Corel trading now?” “Forty-three dollars a share” I replied somewhat uncomfortably. “Buy it back!” my client exclaimed enthusiastically. Fortunately, I was able to dissuade him. Corel peaked that day at $44 and within months crashed back to earth as the stock market tech bubble burst. The chart below illustrates the gory details. Investors who bought and held Corel stock during its inexplicable moon shot of late 1999 and subsequent crash ended up owning a stock market DOG.