Asset Allocation Should be as Simple as Possible but No Simpler
A very simple, yet highly useful asset classification system consists of just two asset classes: (1) equity-growth-stocks and (2) debt-income-bonds.
The Low Risk Anomaly
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is a statistical formulation of the risk reduction benefits of diversification. Under Modern Portfolio Theory, risk is measured quantitatively as volatility or beta. Volatility is the variance or standard deviation of an asset’s returns. Beta is the sensitivity of an asset’s returns to the return of the overall market. High-beta and […]
Duke Energy and Progress Energy Merger
Duke Energy (DUK) and Progress Energy (PGN) have announced plans for a merger that would create the largest publicly traded utility company in the U.S. Initial analyst reaction was unenthusiastic and both stocks traded modestly lower on the news. However, the expected 5.5% dividend on the new company looks attractive in comparison to alternatives and […]
How to Avoid Investment “DOGS”
In August 1999 near the peak of the stock market tech bubble, a long-time, normally conservative client asked me for a “low priced” stock pick in the then red-hot technology sector. I told him about several stocks that fit the bill. He settled on Corel Corporation, a Canadian based Software Company that was working on porting their Perfect Office Suite to the Linux operating system. Almost immediately upon his buying 1,000 shares at $4.75, Corel began climbing nearly doubling within a few weeks before pulling back. In November 1999, Corel stock soared higher. I called my client and recommended he sell his shares at $28. He sold, booking a 560% profit in just 3 months. The day after he sold, he called me back and asked excitedly “Where is Corel trading now?” “Forty-three dollars a share” I replied somewhat uncomfortably. “Buy it back!” my client exclaimed enthusiastically. Fortunately, I was able to dissuade him. Corel peaked that day at $44 and within months crashed back to earth as the stock market tech bubble burst. The chart below illustrates the gory details. Investors who bought and held Corel stock during its inexplicable moon shot of late 1999 and subsequent crash ended up owning a stock market DOG.
